Thursday, 10 September 2009

Let's party like it's 2009!

The recovery party is in full swing, fuelled by an enormous punch bowl of monetary and fiscal stimulus. Having initially threatened to call time by discussing exit strategies, the G20 has agreed to leave the stimulus in place. In doing so, the world's finance ministers have unilaterally committed to underwrite the economic recovery.

Thus, cheap money has increased the price of everything from oil to stocks. Furthermore, in the short term the rally has become a self perpetuating virtuous circle, pushing sentiment indicators higher which in turn sustain further gains. However, easy money and sentiment can only take markets so far. In the end, unless they are supported by above consensus earnings, GDP and clear signs of demand, markets will falter.

Indeed, beneath the benign exterior of lower for longer interest rates lurks a liquidity trap and an economy delicately poised on a knife edge (more on both of these to come).

It is usually sensible to leave a party while it is still in full swing.

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