Eclectic thoughts & observations on global markets
Monday, 10 August 2009
Asian Development Bank predicts Asia ex Japan GDP to recover to pre recession level of 6% in 2010...
... however, it is too early to declare V for victory. Governments have substituted public investment for private investment and exports that have evaporated. With Western demand unlikely to pick up the slack, 6% GDP must come from domestic demand, which is unlikely. The ADB report shows that Asian demand, including China, accounts for 22% of demand for Asian exports. Moreover, H1 Chinese imports fell -25%. So, until Asian economies can create sustainable domestic demand, their recovery will remain fragile.